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Game-Theoretic and Reliability Methods in Counter-Terrorism and Security
Wednesday, June 5 at 11am ET

The routine application of reliability and risk analysis by itself is not adequate in the security domain. Protecting against intentional attacks is fundamentally different from protecting against accidents or acts of nature. In particular, an intelligent and adaptable adversary may adopt a different offensive strategy to circumvent or disable protective security measures. Game theory provides a way of taking this into account. Thus, security and counter-terrorism can benefit from a combination of reliability analysis and game theory. This paper discusses the use of risk and reliability analysis and game theory for defending complex systems against attacks by knowledgeable and adaptable adversaries. The results of such work yield insights into the nature of optimal defensive investments in networked systems to obtain the best trade-off between the cost of the investments and the security of the resulting systems.
Vicki Bier, Ph.D., is a professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She has directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis since 1995 and has more than 30 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical and aerospace industries, as well as homeland security and critical infrastructure protection. She received the Women's Achievement Award from the American Nuclear Society in 1993, was elected a Fellow of SRA in 1996 and received SRA's Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She is a past president of the Decision Analysis Society, from which she received the Frank P. Ramsay Medal in 2016. 

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